UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song

Nurmagomedov

• Takedown volume

  He averages 4.03 takedowns per 15 minutes against Song's 74% takedown defense, and grappling control is the clearest route to a lopsided scorecard.

• Defensive numbers

  He absorbs 1.86 strikes per minute with 61% striking defense, well tighter than the exchanges Song usually ends up in.

• Accuracy and reach

  56% striking accuracy behind a 175.3 cm reach lets him win the outside without needing to trade.

• Submission threat

  Seven of his 20 wins have come by submission, so any scramble carries a finishing risk for Song.

Yadong

• Boxing pedigree

  A boxing background and nine KO/TKO wins mean one clean counter can change a five-round fight.

• Output

  He lands 4.34 strikes per minute, a higher rate than Nurmagomedov's 3.86, and thrives when the fight stays a firefight.

• Home crowd

  Headlining in his own country with a raucous building behind him is worth something over 25 minutes.

• Recent form

  He is coming off a submission win over Figueiredo just two months ago and looked sharp doing it.